I heard this term for the first time in Benaras a month ago, at a lassi shop, in the context of Arvind Kejriwal. Almost a month has passed since, and from what I hear Arvind and AAP have since risen much in Varanasi's esteem - he is considered a serious contender now. Though used in a negative connotation, in reality, the phenomenon of 'votekataua' is a very natural consequence of the voting system that we used. In the first past the post system (or simple plurality system the 'winner takes all'. The candidate with the maximum votes (not the majority of votes) wins the seat. Let us consider a hypothetical constituency with party A and party B engaged in a tight two cornered contest. In a FPPS system getting more vote for oneself is not the only way for party A to win an election. The other way obviously is to cause a division in the votes of party B such that both parts are now less than party A. The new entity that wins enough votes to severely damage the chances of the challenger but not quite enough for itself to win, advertently or inadvertently plays the role of a vote-cutter or 'votekataua'. Come to think of it, if we followed a proportionate representation system, this word would probably not exist.
The word is new but the phenomenon is not. I have talked about this in detail in the context of the Karnataka assembly election (Will Yeddyurappa do a Bangarappa?). We went on to see how Yeddyurappa spoiled the prospects of the BJP in that election (Karnataka 2013). The Congress romped home with a simple majority without increasing its vote share by much.
In this post I want to look at 2 more parties who earned this title in the last election. Specifically we will look at the case of estranged nephew Raj Thakray's Maharashtra Navanirman Sena (MNS) in urban Maharashtra and Matinee idol Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) in Andhra.
The Maharashtra Navanirman Sena was born out of a fratricidal war of succession within the Shiv Sena. When Bal Thackray retired from active politics in 2006 he appointed his son Uddhav as leader of the party resulting in Raj Thackray breaking away to form a party of his own. The MNS in many ways was an ideological clone of the Shiv Sena, with similar 'marathi manus' DNA and hindu nationalist leanings. In the initial years of its formation the MNS adopted a particularly virulent xenophobic stance against north Indians in Mumbai, almost as a way to differentiate itself from its parent, leading to several bouts of violence in the city. All the while amidst clamor for action against the MNS to contain the violence the Congress/NCP state government stayed away, letting MNS build its own constituency by cutting into Shiv Senas base. It turned out to be a masterstroke. As we can see in the figure below, even though the MNS was not able to win a single seat in Maharashtra, it still managed to put up a reasonable contest. The result was that what was expected to be primarily a 2 cornered fight across much of the state did not quiet pan out that way. Much of Maharashtra saw three cornered contest, with the MNS coming up as a strong third force in urban centers and the BSP consolidating its position in much of Vidharba to emerge as a contender there (Graphic below)
Between - 2004 and 2009 - the Congress +NCP increased its number of seats from 22 to 25 inspite of its vote share falling by almost 4%, primarily because the BJP-Shiv Sena combine lost even more (7.5%). 4% of that drop is a straight shift of Sena voters to the MNS.
The effect of the MNS was particularly severe in the Urban centers. A little quick math shows how in all the 10 of the 11 constituencies that the MNS contested from it severely dented the prospects of the BJP-SHS alliance while not managing a single seat for itself.
Had it not been for the MNS the results from Maharashtra would have read 30-15 in favor of the BJP-SHS instead of the final 25-20 in favor of the Congress-NCP. As far as 'Votekatauas' go, the MNS in 2009 was a textbook example.
Moving on to Chiranjeevi and his Praja Rajyam Party. The PRAP was the other impressive debut of 2009. In their first election The Praja Rajyam Party won a whooping 15% of the vote share in Andhra, but did not have a single Lok Sabha seat to show for their efforts. The PRAP however did manage to turn to contest in much of Andhra into a 3 cornered affair.
With the breakup of the NDA and the emergence of the PRAP the the divided opposition was no match to the strong Congress. As per a lot of observers - because of the emergence of the PRAP the anti incumbency vote against the Congress got split in half, making it possible for YSR Reddy to deliver Andhra for the Congress for the second time in a row, with a higher number of seats in spite of a fall in vote share.
And so it happens every time, it is something like an adoption barrier in marketing parlance. New parties have to always face the challenge of being seen as nothing but a vote cutter. Its kind of a self fulfilling prophesy, this thing about being a 'votekataua', if people think that's what a party is, that is what it is likely to end up being being (tactical voting in FPPS). But then again there are parties that are able to cut through this, communicate their message to the voters and convince them of a possibility of victory, the AAP campaign in Delhi is an excellent example of this. New parties are the needed in democracy, they keep it fresh and bring in new ideas and leaders. While it is important to understand the phenomenon of the votekataua as a tactical weapon in democracy, it is also important to get rid of some of this negative connotation with wasted votes.
The word is new but the phenomenon is not. I have talked about this in detail in the context of the Karnataka assembly election (Will Yeddyurappa do a Bangarappa?). We went on to see how Yeddyurappa spoiled the prospects of the BJP in that election (Karnataka 2013). The Congress romped home with a simple majority without increasing its vote share by much.
In this post I want to look at 2 more parties who earned this title in the last election. Specifically we will look at the case of estranged nephew Raj Thakray's Maharashtra Navanirman Sena (MNS) in urban Maharashtra and Matinee idol Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) in Andhra.
The Maharashtra Navanirman Sena was born out of a fratricidal war of succession within the Shiv Sena. When Bal Thackray retired from active politics in 2006 he appointed his son Uddhav as leader of the party resulting in Raj Thackray breaking away to form a party of his own. The MNS in many ways was an ideological clone of the Shiv Sena, with similar 'marathi manus' DNA and hindu nationalist leanings. In the initial years of its formation the MNS adopted a particularly virulent xenophobic stance against north Indians in Mumbai, almost as a way to differentiate itself from its parent, leading to several bouts of violence in the city. All the while amidst clamor for action against the MNS to contain the violence the Congress/NCP state government stayed away, letting MNS build its own constituency by cutting into Shiv Senas base. It turned out to be a masterstroke. As we can see in the figure below, even though the MNS was not able to win a single seat in Maharashtra, it still managed to put up a reasonable contest. The result was that what was expected to be primarily a 2 cornered fight across much of the state did not quiet pan out that way. Much of Maharashtra saw three cornered contest, with the MNS coming up as a strong third force in urban centers and the BSP consolidating its position in much of Vidharba to emerge as a contender there (Graphic below)
Between - 2004 and 2009 - the Congress +NCP increased its number of seats from 22 to 25 inspite of its vote share falling by almost 4%, primarily because the BJP-Shiv Sena combine lost even more (7.5%). 4% of that drop is a straight shift of Sena voters to the MNS.
The effect of the MNS was particularly severe in the Urban centers. A little quick math shows how in all the 10 of the 11 constituencies that the MNS contested from it severely dented the prospects of the BJP-SHS alliance while not managing a single seat for itself.
Had it not been for the MNS the results from Maharashtra would have read 30-15 in favor of the BJP-SHS instead of the final 25-20 in favor of the Congress-NCP. As far as 'Votekatauas' go, the MNS in 2009 was a textbook example.
Moving on to Chiranjeevi and his Praja Rajyam Party. The PRAP was the other impressive debut of 2009. In their first election The Praja Rajyam Party won a whooping 15% of the vote share in Andhra, but did not have a single Lok Sabha seat to show for their efforts. The PRAP however did manage to turn to contest in much of Andhra into a 3 cornered affair.
With the breakup of the NDA and the emergence of the PRAP the the divided opposition was no match to the strong Congress. As per a lot of observers - because of the emergence of the PRAP the anti incumbency vote against the Congress got split in half, making it possible for YSR Reddy to deliver Andhra for the Congress for the second time in a row, with a higher number of seats in spite of a fall in vote share.
And so it happens every time, it is something like an adoption barrier in marketing parlance. New parties have to always face the challenge of being seen as nothing but a vote cutter. Its kind of a self fulfilling prophesy, this thing about being a 'votekataua', if people think that's what a party is, that is what it is likely to end up being being (tactical voting in FPPS). But then again there are parties that are able to cut through this, communicate their message to the voters and convince them of a possibility of victory, the AAP campaign in Delhi is an excellent example of this. New parties are the needed in democracy, they keep it fresh and bring in new ideas and leaders. While it is important to understand the phenomenon of the votekataua as a tactical weapon in democracy, it is also important to get rid of some of this negative connotation with wasted votes.
No comments:
Post a Comment