Will Yeddyurappa do a Bangarappa?

The importance of Karnataka 2013 to both the Congress and the BJP in the home stretch towards India 2014 is much talked about. 

Both the opinion polls coming out in the last month or so (CSDS for CNN IBN and C-Voter for Headlines Today) have predicted the KJP garnering a 7-8% vote share mostly at the expense of the BJP. This means that that the difference in vote share which was 1% last time around (with the Congress ahead even then) is predicted to grow to as much as 6-10%.. In a four way contest a 10 % lead in vote share is expected to translate to a thumping majority for the Congress. Again, a lot depends on the performance of Yeddyurappa and KJP in the BJP strongholds of Bombay Karnataka and Central Karnataka.

In the analysis of the impact that Yeddyurappa and KJP will have on the Karnataka elections, the effect of Keshubhai Patel and the GPP on the last elections in Gujarat is often used as a parallel. The similarity is compelling. Like Keshubhai, Yeddyurappa has also had a long history of association with the Sangh. Also both are seen as strong leaders within a particular electorally dominant caste (Patels in the case of Keshubhai and lingayats in the case of Yeddyurappa). Both split from their parent party, the BJP, about a year before assembly elections to create independent outfits. Like in the case of Keshubhai, It is evident that even in the case of Yeddyurappa, apart from the corruption charges, the intense factional rivalary within the BJP was a key reason of his exit. Maybe the  eventual fate of Keshubhai and the GPP can offer some pointers. So how successful was Keshubhai in Gujarat - evidently very little - In all his party gathered barely 3.5% of the voteshare - translating to two seats, one of which was Keshubhai himself. Overall 90% of its candidates lost their deposit and the BJP came to power with an almost 2/3 majority. 

In the light of this - does a prediction of Yeddyurappa taking 6-7% voteshare away from the BJP in Karnataka sound too rich? maybe not. Perhaps a more interesting parallel can be found closer to home. 

The following is a visualization of election results in the state over the  last 35 years, like in the last post, but this time by region. There seems to be an interesting story here. Take a look at the blue Congress vote-share taking the steep downward dip in the 1994 elections only to recover the next time. This is accompanied by a steep upward increase in the 'Others' category which again goes back to its previous level in the next election. Something interesting seems to be happening here.  The tableau graphic allows us to zoom into a region, and it can be seen that this phenomenon of  downward dip in the congress vote-share and a corresponding upward move in the Others category in 1994 is even more amplified in Central Karnataka. On closer investigation, The key constituent of the 'Others' category was the KCP (Karnataka Congress party),the party that was formed by S. Bangarappa after he broke away from the Congress. 

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Bangarappa, was chief minister for the Congress party between 1990 and 1992, before he was replaced,  by Veerappa Moily, upon charges of corruption. He left the Congress party to form his own outfit, the KCP which did have a big impact on the election, though not as big as had been predicted. Overall even though KCP itself won only 10 seats it did manage to dent the chances of the Congress severely. The vote-share of the Congress fell by a whooping 17% in that election and the number of seats fell from 178 to 34.  Apparently, apart from the percentage that the defection takes away from the party, there is possibility of further erosion in the vote share due to the last minute exodus with confusion in the party rank and file leading to lack of preparation. Also hardly surprising that the phenomenon was most pronounced in Central Karnataka where Bangarappa was most popular having contested from the Shimoga region for his entire political life (he won the Sorab seat a record 7 times). 

In summary, Yeddyurappa and KJP could very well follow the path that Bangarappa traced in 1994. If that were to be the case then if anything the opinion polls could have been too kind on the BJP, for in a quadrangular contest a 6-8% difference in vote share could easily translate to a rout. Anyway that is something time will tell, and pretty soon.

That leaves us with one last question for this post. So what happened with Bangarappa after 1994. Well, Bangarappa and the KCP went back to the Congress. Bangarappa himself won the 1999 election on a Congress party ticket, in an election that the Congress won handsomely, recovering much of the voteshare they had lost. 

Now  let's for a moment suppose that history repeats itself - the possibilities are interesting. Here's one such scenario - Yeddy does a Bangarappa  -  BJP gets routed in Karnataka - the Advani/Anant Kumar faction of the BJP gets the blame- in time corruption charges on Yeddy are cleared -  Modi who has been maintaining a studied distance placates Yeddy  - Yeddy comes back  - in the 2014 race within the BJP  Modi scores a few more points. Its just one of the possibilities.

Sarekoppa Bangarappa fought his last election in 2008 under the SP banner from Shikaripura where he lost by a massive margin. How ironic that Yeddyrappa finds himself in the shoes of this man, 5 years after defeating him by a record margin and 2 years after his death.