As Karnataka goes into polls in a few days the country is watching. The national elections are due in barely 12 months, and maybe earlier if you ask cynics. Calling this the semi-final might be a bit of a stretch, but the importance of the elections in Karnataka cannot be underestimated. For the congress it is a great chance to to start the home stretch on a winning note. For the BJP emerging from the tangle they have got themselves into with some modicum of respect is important for them to be considered seriously as a national party.
Another round of state elections is due before that. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Chattisgarh will go to the polls later this year. The BJP would fancy their chances of winning at least three of those four. Everybody wants to back the winning horse and having a respectable position in Karnataka, and a winning a few more in the next round would position them well in the coalition sweepstakes before 2014. Conversely a bad performance in Karnataka could adversely effect chances in the next round, and with few allies around anyway, push it towards a desparate 'all-in' strategy.
Karnataka results would also be watched because for some wierd coincidence, Karnataka is somewhat like an inverse bellwether of the national political scene. Karnataka for some reasons always seems to go in the opposite direction as the rest of the country is going. A point that is brought out by the following graphic illustrating the fluctuating fortunes of the main political formations in the state over the last 35 years.
Lets start at 1978, barely a year after the Janta Party swept the Lok Sabha to give the country its first non-Congress government, the congress swept Karnataka winning more than 60% of the seats. In Indira Gandhi's darkest political hour, she fought the by-election from Chikmagalur in 1978 to get back to parliament.
Again on either side (1983 and 1985) of of Rajiv Gandhis historic 80% majority in 1984 Karnataka stayed shy of the Congress, giving the Janta party led by Ramakrishna Hegde a clear majority in 1985. Once again in 1989 when Bofors and the emergence of VP Singh forced the Congress out of power in the center, it roared back to power in karnataka with an unprecedented 4/5 majority. In 1994 while Narasimha Rao ruled in the centre Karnataka went back to the Janta Dal.
In 1999 BJP came to power in the Center with the NDA government but Karnataka was safe with the Congress. SM Krishna completed the rare full term in office. This strange phenomenon continued in 2008 when at the heels of UPA winning a secont term in Office, the BJP stormed to power for the first time in a southern state.
The graphic also tells a strong story about the steady growth of the BJP over the last 30 years in Karnataka. Whether the Saffron 'worm' has lost its steam just before it was about to catch up with the blue Congress one is something we will find out shortly. Also what does come out clearly is that amidst all its highs and lows the Congress has managed to keep its vote share relatively stable in Karnataka. The growth of the BJP, though it has been nibbling at the Congress core as well has largely been at the expense of the fractious Janta family of parties..
A deeper look at the regional level is perhaps warranted to get a better understanding of the evolution of Karnataka politics in this period.
Another round of state elections is due before that. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Chattisgarh will go to the polls later this year. The BJP would fancy their chances of winning at least three of those four. Everybody wants to back the winning horse and having a respectable position in Karnataka, and a winning a few more in the next round would position them well in the coalition sweepstakes before 2014. Conversely a bad performance in Karnataka could adversely effect chances in the next round, and with few allies around anyway, push it towards a desparate 'all-in' strategy.
Karnataka results would also be watched because for some wierd coincidence, Karnataka is somewhat like an inverse bellwether of the national political scene. Karnataka for some reasons always seems to go in the opposite direction as the rest of the country is going. A point that is brought out by the following graphic illustrating the fluctuating fortunes of the main political formations in the state over the last 35 years.
Lets start at 1978, barely a year after the Janta Party swept the Lok Sabha to give the country its first non-Congress government, the congress swept Karnataka winning more than 60% of the seats. In Indira Gandhi's darkest political hour, she fought the by-election from Chikmagalur in 1978 to get back to parliament.
Again on either side (1983 and 1985) of of Rajiv Gandhis historic 80% majority in 1984 Karnataka stayed shy of the Congress, giving the Janta party led by Ramakrishna Hegde a clear majority in 1985. Once again in 1989 when Bofors and the emergence of VP Singh forced the Congress out of power in the center, it roared back to power in karnataka with an unprecedented 4/5 majority. In 1994 while Narasimha Rao ruled in the centre Karnataka went back to the Janta Dal.
In 1999 BJP came to power in the Center with the NDA government but Karnataka was safe with the Congress. SM Krishna completed the rare full term in office. This strange phenomenon continued in 2008 when at the heels of UPA winning a secont term in Office, the BJP stormed to power for the first time in a southern state.
The graphic also tells a strong story about the steady growth of the BJP over the last 30 years in Karnataka. Whether the Saffron 'worm' has lost its steam just before it was about to catch up with the blue Congress one is something we will find out shortly. Also what does come out clearly is that amidst all its highs and lows the Congress has managed to keep its vote share relatively stable in Karnataka. The growth of the BJP, though it has been nibbling at the Congress core as well has largely been at the expense of the fractious Janta family of parties..
A deeper look at the regional level is perhaps warranted to get a better understanding of the evolution of Karnataka politics in this period.
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