As countries go, India is
a relatively young, 67 years is not a long time, and throughout its
short and checkered history scholars have wondered what keeps this
teeming multitude of people from various religions, castes and races,
speaking hundreds of languages and living in diverse regions together.
Our democracy comes up as a central ingredient of this 'idea of India',
that invisible glue that keeps this country going. Time and again, it
has proved to be a strong barrier against fundamentalist forces of
different kinds and at the same time an effective pressure valve for
expression of dissent. It showed that it has the strength to defend
itself and fight back when emergency was imposed by Indira Gandhi and
over the years it has grown in maturity, adding layer upon layer of
character and complexity to itself, to get more in tune with the
aspirations of its people.
Undoubtedly democracy has been the single most potent driving force for the destiny of India and even a quick look of general election results can say much about the politics of the times. The graphic below shows the results of the the last 10 Lok Sabha elections spread between 1977 and 2009 (click on the < and > links to scroll across elections). The colors represent primary political formations as represented in the legend.
The Elections of 1977 marked the end of one of the most turbulent times in Indias history. Article 352, was invoked by Indira Gandhi to impose a state of internal emergency in 1975, bestowing upon her the authority to rule by decree, to suspend elections and curb civil liberties. This was vigorously opposed by various sections of society and forces across the political spectrum who cobbled together a hasty alliance (Janta Alliance) when elections were announced by Indira Gandhi in 1977. This motley group included JP's left leaning Socialist Party, Communists, Charan Singhs Bharatiya Lok Dal, the right leaning Jan Sangh and some old hands from Congress(O) thrown in for good measure. Such was the unpopularity of the emergency and draconian curbs imposed on the opposition and press that came with it that this hastily formed alliance delivered a crushing blow to the congress winning 298 of the 543 seats. The blanket of green over almost the entire North India shows the magnitude of the defeat. The Congress could not manage even a single seat in all of Bihar and UP (even Indira Gandhi lost here seat) and managed only solitary seats from Madhya Pradesh(Chhindwara) and Rajasthan(Nagaur). 1977 was the first time when non congress government, led by Morarjee Desai came to power in the center. More significantly the seeds of anti Congressism as a viable political ideology has been sown in large parts of the country.
The Janta government was India's first experiment with coalition politics, but it was not built to last. The government crumbled under the burden of the the ideological differences and personal ambitions of its constituents and fresh elections were called for in 1980. The Janta alliance or whatever remained of it was decimated in this election. The countries first non Congress government had failed and the split and rudderless opposition watched as much of north India scurried back to the Congress. Although the Janta constituents did maintain some of their hold in UP and Bihar, the Congress regained much of the lost ground.
The 1984 elections were held right after the assassination of Indira Gandhi. The shocked nation voted under the influence of a massive sympathy wave giving the congress a whooping 80% majority with 416 seats. Only small pockets of resistance remained in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. In fact the Telegu Desam party emerged as the second largest and hence the principal opposition party. Regionalism in Indian politics had arrived. Also in the list of arrivals was the BJP which made its debut with 2 seats (Mehsana and Hanamkonda)
In the run-up to the elections of 1989 the bofors scandal became the rallying point for anti Congress parties to join forces. The national front was formed by combining VP Singh's Janta Dal with regional parties like the DMK, TDP and AGP. Further seat sharing with BJP and the Left front led to consolidation of the anti congress vote. As a result the congress was significantly weakned down to 197 seats and the National front formed a government led by VP Singh with outside support from the BJP and the Left front. This election saw the return of anti-Congressism in the same areas where its seeds had been planted in 1977. While the Janta Dal took much of UP and Bihar, the BJP registered strong performances in MP, Gujarat and Rajasthan. The other similarity in the results of 1977 and 1989 was the Congress's strong performance south of the Vindhyas, to counterbalance its rout in the north.
This second experiment with a non-congress government also ended in a failure, just like the first one, and just like the first one the ideological contradictions of the constituents and the personal ambitions of the leaders were to blame for another round of elections in 1991. Meanwhile in his short term VP Singh had implemented the Mandal Commision report (giving 27% reservation to OBC's) while the BJP was busy stoking the smoldering fires of the Ramjanmabhoomi Babri masjid dispute. The first phase of this election was fought over mandal and masjid, but Rajiv Gandhis assasination midway through the election changed everything. The resulting sympathy wave let to the Congress sweeping the constituencies where polling was held in the second phase, and ultimately forming a government under the leadership of PV Narasimha Rao. This election led to the emergence of the BJP as the principal opporition party for the first time with 120 seats.
Three elections were held in quick succession in 1996, 1998 and 1999. Mandal and Masjid continued to be dominant themes across the politics of much of the 1990's. The other common theme across all three elections was the gradual rise of the BJP as it made attempts to form a government at the center, moving first to 162 in 1996, 182 in 1998, when they led two minority governments for 13 days and 13 months respectively and then finally getting their alliances right in 1999 to form an NDA government. The A B Vajpayee led NDA government was the first non-congress government to complete a full term in office. Meanwhile the Congress stock deteriorated to 140 before finally reaching their all time low of 114 seats in 1999.
The Vajpayee led NDA government was not only the first non-Congress government to successfully complete its term, it was also the first successful experiment with the coalition model. The first blows were felt in the run-up to the 2004 elections itself as the NC and DMK left the alliance - the latter to join the Congress led UPA. The Congress was quick to emulate Vajpayee's coalition model and the 2004 election was a battle of alliances. In the crucial swing states of Andhra pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Bihar the UPA decisively beat the NDA. For the NDA this was further exacerbated by their bad performance in UP. Ultimately the Congress led UPA formed the government led by Manmohan Singh which won another election successfully in 2009
To sum it up, when we look at it in the longer term we see a gradual move to highly distributed mandates where no party can realistically aim to form a government on their own and alliances are the key.
Over this time the mantle of the principal opposition has come to reside with the center-right BJP. The ideological inheritors of the socialism of JP and Karpoori Thakur, the surviving fragments of the janta party, have got contained both geographically and ideologically.Today RJD, JD(U), SP and JD(S) are all regional players primarily identified with the politics of identity.
The politics of identity has also given birth to parties like BSP which started from rather humble beginnings to establish themselves on the national scene. The story has been a little different for the left parties. At one time they had pockets of influence across the country, and apart from their traditional strongholds in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, used to win elections regularly in the naxal belts of central Bihar (Jehanabad, Balia, Nalanda, Buxar) and Andhra (Bhadrachalam, Nalgonda, Miryalguda). It does seem that their influence as a national party is on the vane. Lastly the seeds of regionalism planted by NTR and MGR are finally bearing fruit. if anything regional parties are gaining in importance and look likely to play a larger role in the age of coalitions.
Undoubtedly democracy has been the single most potent driving force for the destiny of India and even a quick look of general election results can say much about the politics of the times. The graphic below shows the results of the the last 10 Lok Sabha elections spread between 1977 and 2009 (click on the < and > links to scroll across elections). The colors represent primary political formations as represented in the legend.
The Elections of 1977 marked the end of one of the most turbulent times in Indias history. Article 352, was invoked by Indira Gandhi to impose a state of internal emergency in 1975, bestowing upon her the authority to rule by decree, to suspend elections and curb civil liberties. This was vigorously opposed by various sections of society and forces across the political spectrum who cobbled together a hasty alliance (Janta Alliance) when elections were announced by Indira Gandhi in 1977. This motley group included JP's left leaning Socialist Party, Communists, Charan Singhs Bharatiya Lok Dal, the right leaning Jan Sangh and some old hands from Congress(O) thrown in for good measure. Such was the unpopularity of the emergency and draconian curbs imposed on the opposition and press that came with it that this hastily formed alliance delivered a crushing blow to the congress winning 298 of the 543 seats. The blanket of green over almost the entire North India shows the magnitude of the defeat. The Congress could not manage even a single seat in all of Bihar and UP (even Indira Gandhi lost here seat) and managed only solitary seats from Madhya Pradesh(Chhindwara) and Rajasthan(Nagaur). 1977 was the first time when non congress government, led by Morarjee Desai came to power in the center. More significantly the seeds of anti Congressism as a viable political ideology has been sown in large parts of the country.
The Janta government was India's first experiment with coalition politics, but it was not built to last. The government crumbled under the burden of the the ideological differences and personal ambitions of its constituents and fresh elections were called for in 1980. The Janta alliance or whatever remained of it was decimated in this election. The countries first non Congress government had failed and the split and rudderless opposition watched as much of north India scurried back to the Congress. Although the Janta constituents did maintain some of their hold in UP and Bihar, the Congress regained much of the lost ground.
The 1984 elections were held right after the assassination of Indira Gandhi. The shocked nation voted under the influence of a massive sympathy wave giving the congress a whooping 80% majority with 416 seats. Only small pockets of resistance remained in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. In fact the Telegu Desam party emerged as the second largest and hence the principal opposition party. Regionalism in Indian politics had arrived. Also in the list of arrivals was the BJP which made its debut with 2 seats (Mehsana and Hanamkonda)
In the run-up to the elections of 1989 the bofors scandal became the rallying point for anti Congress parties to join forces. The national front was formed by combining VP Singh's Janta Dal with regional parties like the DMK, TDP and AGP. Further seat sharing with BJP and the Left front led to consolidation of the anti congress vote. As a result the congress was significantly weakned down to 197 seats and the National front formed a government led by VP Singh with outside support from the BJP and the Left front. This election saw the return of anti-Congressism in the same areas where its seeds had been planted in 1977. While the Janta Dal took much of UP and Bihar, the BJP registered strong performances in MP, Gujarat and Rajasthan. The other similarity in the results of 1977 and 1989 was the Congress's strong performance south of the Vindhyas, to counterbalance its rout in the north.
This second experiment with a non-congress government also ended in a failure, just like the first one, and just like the first one the ideological contradictions of the constituents and the personal ambitions of the leaders were to blame for another round of elections in 1991. Meanwhile in his short term VP Singh had implemented the Mandal Commision report (giving 27% reservation to OBC's) while the BJP was busy stoking the smoldering fires of the Ramjanmabhoomi Babri masjid dispute. The first phase of this election was fought over mandal and masjid, but Rajiv Gandhis assasination midway through the election changed everything. The resulting sympathy wave let to the Congress sweeping the constituencies where polling was held in the second phase, and ultimately forming a government under the leadership of PV Narasimha Rao. This election led to the emergence of the BJP as the principal opporition party for the first time with 120 seats.
Three elections were held in quick succession in 1996, 1998 and 1999. Mandal and Masjid continued to be dominant themes across the politics of much of the 1990's. The other common theme across all three elections was the gradual rise of the BJP as it made attempts to form a government at the center, moving first to 162 in 1996, 182 in 1998, when they led two minority governments for 13 days and 13 months respectively and then finally getting their alliances right in 1999 to form an NDA government. The A B Vajpayee led NDA government was the first non-congress government to complete a full term in office. Meanwhile the Congress stock deteriorated to 140 before finally reaching their all time low of 114 seats in 1999.
The Vajpayee led NDA government was not only the first non-Congress government to successfully complete its term, it was also the first successful experiment with the coalition model. The first blows were felt in the run-up to the 2004 elections itself as the NC and DMK left the alliance - the latter to join the Congress led UPA. The Congress was quick to emulate Vajpayee's coalition model and the 2004 election was a battle of alliances. In the crucial swing states of Andhra pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Bihar the UPA decisively beat the NDA. For the NDA this was further exacerbated by their bad performance in UP. Ultimately the Congress led UPA formed the government led by Manmohan Singh which won another election successfully in 2009
To sum it up, when we look at it in the longer term we see a gradual move to highly distributed mandates where no party can realistically aim to form a government on their own and alliances are the key.
Over this time the mantle of the principal opposition has come to reside with the center-right BJP. The ideological inheritors of the socialism of JP and Karpoori Thakur, the surviving fragments of the janta party, have got contained both geographically and ideologically.Today RJD, JD(U), SP and JD(S) are all regional players primarily identified with the politics of identity.
The politics of identity has also given birth to parties like BSP which started from rather humble beginnings to establish themselves on the national scene. The story has been a little different for the left parties. At one time they had pockets of influence across the country, and apart from their traditional strongholds in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, used to win elections regularly in the naxal belts of central Bihar (Jehanabad, Balia, Nalanda, Buxar) and Andhra (Bhadrachalam, Nalgonda, Miryalguda). It does seem that their influence as a national party is on the vane. Lastly the seeds of regionalism planted by NTR and MGR are finally bearing fruit. if anything regional parties are gaining in importance and look likely to play a larger role in the age of coalitions.
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