Results of elections for the Karnataka state assembly were declared yesterday, with the Indian National Congress winning a clear majority with 120 seats and the incumbent BJP finishing third with 40 seats. After a couple of months of hectic political activity and about 3 years of political chaos, things are beginning to settle in Bangalore (at least one hopes so as the selection of the Chief minister is still due). The verdict of these elections provides the state with a much needed shot at stability.
The verdict is not very different from what the pundits have been predicting. As the graphic below shows the Congress has performed well across the entire state.The fact that it is a good 16% ahead of its nearest rivals in terms of overall vote share tells a story in in itself. The only reason it did not do even better than it has, is probably because its rivals have their strengths concentrated in parts of the state, the BJP in the North and the JD(S) in the south, whereas the congress is more evenly spread out.Lets look at what the results mean for the various political parties. For starters this election results comes as a welcome boost to the Congress, with its central government reeling under a fresh slew of corruption charges. The timing could scarcely have been better coming at the beginning of the home stretch towards India-2014. That said, perhaps the Congress and its spokespersons could do better than act smug about it and paint it as a vindication from the people. Even though the congress has won 40 seats more than what it won last time, its share of votes, has actually gone up by only 2 percentage. The fact remains that the verdict is a result of the congress managing to retain its support base in a 4 (and in some places 5) cornered contest, rather than a groundswell of support in its favour. All said and done, this is still a great opportunity for the Congress to consolidate its position in the state by providing it with a solid administration it has been lacking for the past 5 years.
Lastly, If we look at the results region wise, it becomes evident that Yeddyurappa has had a decisive role to play in Bombay Karnataka, Central Karnataka and to an extent in Hyderabad Karnataka. In Bombay Karnataka and Central Karnataka were two areas where the BJP did exceptionally well last time. These two areas accounted for 60 seats for the BJP last time around. This number shurunk to 17 this time. Evidently the loss of 43 seats from its previous strongholds was the killer blow for the BJP. The impact of Yeddyurappa was most pronounced in his traditional stronghold of central Karnataka where KJP garnered 17.5% votes, and even though KJP itself won only 1 seat here it managet to relegate BJP to the 4th place in terms of vote share. Shimoga City is a case in point - The congress canditate emerging victorious while the KJP candidate pushed BJP leader Eashwarappa to 3rd position in a close 3 cornered contest. against expectations though, KJP's performance In Hyderabad Karnataka where they garnered 19% of the vote and 3 seats, again severely denting the BJP's already slim prospects. In all these three regions the Congress almost doubled its tally without increasing its vote share significantly.
The verdict is not very different from what the pundits have been predicting. As the graphic below shows the Congress has performed well across the entire state.The fact that it is a good 16% ahead of its nearest rivals in terms of overall vote share tells a story in in itself. The only reason it did not do even better than it has, is probably because its rivals have their strengths concentrated in parts of the state, the BJP in the North and the JD(S) in the south, whereas the congress is more evenly spread out.Lets look at what the results mean for the various political parties. For starters this election results comes as a welcome boost to the Congress, with its central government reeling under a fresh slew of corruption charges. The timing could scarcely have been better coming at the beginning of the home stretch towards India-2014. That said, perhaps the Congress and its spokespersons could do better than act smug about it and paint it as a vindication from the people. Even though the congress has won 40 seats more than what it won last time, its share of votes, has actually gone up by only 2 percentage. The fact remains that the verdict is a result of the congress managing to retain its support base in a 4 (and in some places 5) cornered contest, rather than a groundswell of support in its favour. All said and done, this is still a great opportunity for the Congress to consolidate its position in the state by providing it with a solid administration it has been lacking for the past 5 years.
As far as the BJP is concerned it has squandered a golden chance to expand its sphere of influence beyond the Hindi speaking belt. This election has pushed back the party by a good 15 years to where it was in 1999, in terms of vote share and seats as the graphic below shows. Its overall vote share being below the JD(S) the BJP is not even the principal opposition party. The BJP's vote share came down by about 14% in this election. Compare the sharp convergence of the saffron and purple lines in 2013 with that of the the blue and purple lines in 1994. So to answer the question in our last post - will Yeddyurappa do a Bangarappa - he just did that - just the effect was more severe in this case as the graphic shows. The KJP, and to a lesser extent the BSR Congress would account for a large part of the voteshare that the BJP lost. However the party would still find it hard to reason with the fact that that this is still a massive negative verdict against itself.
As far as Yeddyurappa goes this result has been a bit of a disaster. With all but 6 seats in the assembly he is surely running short of options. That said he can probably draw succour from the fact that he did manage to keep the BJP under 50 seats, as he had proclaimed, and he did make sure that some of his fiercest political rivals in the BJP (most notably Easwarappa from Shimoga City) got defeated.
Lastly the JD(S) did not do all that bad as some of the pundits had predicted. They improved their tally from 2008 and exceeded the BJP in terms of vote share, emerged as strong contender to the Congress in the Mysore region, and have made sure that the possibility of a credible alternative of a third front is alive in Karnataka.
Lastly, If we look at the results region wise, it becomes evident that Yeddyurappa has had a decisive role to play in Bombay Karnataka, Central Karnataka and to an extent in Hyderabad Karnataka. In Bombay Karnataka and Central Karnataka were two areas where the BJP did exceptionally well last time. These two areas accounted for 60 seats for the BJP last time around. This number shurunk to 17 this time. Evidently the loss of 43 seats from its previous strongholds was the killer blow for the BJP. The impact of Yeddyurappa was most pronounced in his traditional stronghold of central Karnataka where KJP garnered 17.5% votes, and even though KJP itself won only 1 seat here it managet to relegate BJP to the 4th place in terms of vote share. Shimoga City is a case in point - The congress canditate emerging victorious while the KJP candidate pushed BJP leader Eashwarappa to 3rd position in a close 3 cornered contest. against expectations though, KJP's performance In Hyderabad Karnataka where they garnered 19% of the vote and 3 seats, again severely denting the BJP's already slim prospects. In all these three regions the Congress almost doubled its tally without increasing its vote share significantly.
Mysore Karnataka though offers a study in contrast - it is the only region where the Congress has lost both voteshare and seats compared to 2008. Again adding credence to the contention that the result is more of a negative vote against the BJP than a groundswell for the Congress. People of the state have chosen an alternative where a credible one existed.
So this was how it all panned out.. The question of who would be chief minister is still open. One look at the results is enough to see that the Congress has won 70 of its seats from north and central Karnataka - a point which needs to be emphasized even more because this was the BJP bastion last time around. In fact, if one has to be critical, one could say that the performance of the party in Southern Karnataka was below par (it being the only region where the party last seats compared to 2008). Given that the two main candidates for the post of Chief Minister are Siddharamaiah, with a base in the Mysore region and Mallikarjuna Kharge with a base in north Karnataka, the context of the results does tip the scale towards the latter. With having been elected to the assembly a record 10 times, and multiple terms as minister in the Center as well as the state, he has the credentials for the job. This could also be a golden chance for the party to woo back the voters of north Karnataka who desserted the party over the perceived ill-treatment meted out to Virendra Patil. Lastly Kharge is a Dalit and that could be a good message on the national level as the country goes towards election year. But then again, Siddharamaiah, is unlikely to take that lying down, and there are a few long time high command favourites in the mix as well.
To end with, where do the KJP and the BJP go from here. It does appear that aggressive posturing aside, both of the sides understand that coming back together is probably their only route to salvage something from the next election. The problem is that there is no honourable way to do that, at least not right now. However there's still another year to go before the national elections, a long time in Indian Politics.
So this was how it all panned out.. The question of who would be chief minister is still open. One look at the results is enough to see that the Congress has won 70 of its seats from north and central Karnataka - a point which needs to be emphasized even more because this was the BJP bastion last time around. In fact, if one has to be critical, one could say that the performance of the party in Southern Karnataka was below par (it being the only region where the party last seats compared to 2008). Given that the two main candidates for the post of Chief Minister are Siddharamaiah, with a base in the Mysore region and Mallikarjuna Kharge with a base in north Karnataka, the context of the results does tip the scale towards the latter. With having been elected to the assembly a record 10 times, and multiple terms as minister in the Center as well as the state, he has the credentials for the job. This could also be a golden chance for the party to woo back the voters of north Karnataka who desserted the party over the perceived ill-treatment meted out to Virendra Patil. Lastly Kharge is a Dalit and that could be a good message on the national level as the country goes towards election year. But then again, Siddharamaiah, is unlikely to take that lying down, and there are a few long time high command favourites in the mix as well.
To end with, where do the KJP and the BJP go from here. It does appear that aggressive posturing aside, both of the sides understand that coming back together is probably their only route to salvage something from the next election. The problem is that there is no honourable way to do that, at least not right now. However there's still another year to go before the national elections, a long time in Indian Politics.
