It has been a while since I have been here. The Karnataka elections are far behind us, and the big one is looming. Actually the big one is almost on us now, the dates have been out for a while, the biggest democracy in the world goes to polls in a couple of weeks. In the next month 800 Million voters will have the chance to exercise their democratic privilege as the country waits for May 16th - the day of reckoning.
I must confess that I restart this journey with a certain wariness. Part of it perhaps comes from a natural inertia at the start of something new, but there is the other part which is about the magnitude of the subject at hand. It is a bit like how you feel when you get late, late because you are not sure if you should be there in the first place. The intent of this blog has always been to provide a historical perspective of elections, driven by data, and in the process try to understand the workings of democracy. I am no expert and this is more like a tool to document learnings but even then Lok Sabha 2014 has proved to be daunting subject.
To start with, this is a "datablog" and hence the essential and most important ingredient of it is the data. To say the least getting to the data necessary to do any meaningful analysis of India's history of parliamentary elections is not a trivial task. We have had 15 elections in the last 60 odd years and even though the election commission of india provides all records of past elections - most of it is in pdf files and step 1 is to convert it into a usable machine readable form like excel. That by itself is a time taking, manual task done over months. Finding GIS data on constituency maps is even more difficult.
To add to this General Elections in India is a big deal, 2014 in particular, is possibly the most hotly contested and divisive one in my memory. An incumbent who has led the country into despondency of corruption and a low growth, high inflation economy, a challenger to the throne who is by most accounts a highly divisive figure, and a wildcard who has thrown the gauntlet at traditional politics but has little experience of governance make for an interesting cast of protagonists. Then there is the big set of character actors and regional chieftains, who see this as their big chance for a coup. It is safe to say that this election is a magnum opus that has captured the imagination of this country. All this is going to be played over a battlefield spanning 35 states and union territories with 543 constituencies between them. Candidly, I have had much of the data for months now but have been vacillating on where to start.
However two events have acted as a proverbial kick on the back and put me to work again. Firstly the data camp over the weekend was an inspiration like last time - plus we managed to crack the post delimitation shape file nut with the help of GIS guru Devdutta. Secondly circumstances take me to Varanasi tomorrow. I will be spending the next week in the nerve center of India's political heartland. I had to get into the act, now.
So heres the plan - In the month or so to the lead up to the results - I will try to sift through the mounds of data to try to better understand the political geography and history of this country. Throughout the process looking for nuggets from the past that might have bearings on the future. Given the broad canvas, the plan is to look at the country at a macro level and then dive deeper into the states that matter - namely UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu, others depending on time.
Lastly, to close with all the caveats expressed in this previous post still apply. The data is gleaned through a very manual process, so please do feel free to point out any inconsistencies in it. The opinions and analyses in the blog are open to suggestions and critique.
I must confess that I restart this journey with a certain wariness. Part of it perhaps comes from a natural inertia at the start of something new, but there is the other part which is about the magnitude of the subject at hand. It is a bit like how you feel when you get late, late because you are not sure if you should be there in the first place. The intent of this blog has always been to provide a historical perspective of elections, driven by data, and in the process try to understand the workings of democracy. I am no expert and this is more like a tool to document learnings but even then Lok Sabha 2014 has proved to be daunting subject.
To start with, this is a "datablog" and hence the essential and most important ingredient of it is the data. To say the least getting to the data necessary to do any meaningful analysis of India's history of parliamentary elections is not a trivial task. We have had 15 elections in the last 60 odd years and even though the election commission of india provides all records of past elections - most of it is in pdf files and step 1 is to convert it into a usable machine readable form like excel. That by itself is a time taking, manual task done over months. Finding GIS data on constituency maps is even more difficult.
However two events have acted as a proverbial kick on the back and put me to work again. Firstly the data camp over the weekend was an inspiration like last time - plus we managed to crack the post delimitation shape file nut with the help of GIS guru Devdutta. Secondly circumstances take me to Varanasi tomorrow. I will be spending the next week in the nerve center of India's political heartland. I had to get into the act, now.
So heres the plan - In the month or so to the lead up to the results - I will try to sift through the mounds of data to try to better understand the political geography and history of this country. Throughout the process looking for nuggets from the past that might have bearings on the future. Given the broad canvas, the plan is to look at the country at a macro level and then dive deeper into the states that matter - namely UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu, others depending on time.
Lastly, to close with all the caveats expressed in this previous post still apply. The data is gleaned through a very manual process, so please do feel free to point out any inconsistencies in it. The opinions and analyses in the blog are open to suggestions and critique.
