Thursday, April 11, 2013

Balance of Power

We talked very briefly about the post modern history, or the history of the state in the 65 years post independence/integration. Lots has happened in this time and there is no denying that the events of this period have a lot of import on  current politics and hence very important to understand. I guess it has been a bit daunting precisely because of its importance and I have been a loss about where to start from. 

Perhaps a look at the leaders who have shaped the history of the state over this period is a good place to start. Karnataka has seen a number of leaders of stature over the last 65 years. The  graphic shows the 21 chief ministers that the state has had on a map of the state based on the constituency where they built their political fortunes. The size of the circles representing the their tenure as chief minister and the shading represents the time since they were at the highest seat. (so the earlier chief ministers are shaded with a lighter hue and the more recent ones with a darker one).

Some disclaimers here, This is built out of unstructured data scraped from wikipedia, for the earlier chief ministers there is not a lot of data on their assembly constituencies. In some cases I have extrapolated from the district. Also there are others who have fought elections from multiple constituencies across regions to varying results, in such cases I have picked up one randomly. 

The graphic seems to underscore the the much propagated political narrative of Vokkaliga-Lingayat and north-south power balance in the state. The Vokkaligas constitute about 15% of the population of the state and are concentrated in the southern parts of the state, while the northern parts of the state are dominated by the Lingayats, who constitute about 17% of the states population. The remainder is constituted of Kurubas (about 8%), Dalits (23%) Muslims (10%) Brahmins, Christians and other backward castes (27%)

Between them the Vokkaligas and the Lingayats  constitute 32% of the states population, but a much bigger share of political power in the state. Of the 19 chief ministers that the state has had till date 6 have been Vokkaligas, 8 Lingayats, 2 Brahmins and 3 belonging to other backward castes. Goes without saying that like in much of the country Dalits and Muslims remain highly under represented at the top job.

Much of the states political narrative has been shaped by this power balance. As recently as in 2007 when Yeddyurappa was dumped by Kumaraswamy and the JD(U), it was portrayed as a betrayal of not just an individual or a party but the entire Lingayat community, re-opening old festering wounds of the north. Deve Gowda's earlier  involvement in the ouster of another popular North Karnataka leader, Ramakrishna Hegde and Virendra Patils sudden sacking by Rajiv Gandhi in 1989 are a few more chapters in this narrative.

So,  like it or not, caste, still plays an important role in the politics of Karnataka, as it does in much of the country. Whether the next chief minister of the state will be a Vokkaliga, a Lingayat, or as a welcom first - Dalit/Muslim something we will have to wait and see.


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